The return of the heatwaves in mid-July in France?

More and more numerical model ensemble members have started showing a much warmer trend for mid-July in France. The following chart shows the temperature forecasts of 52 global and regional model runs for Paris every 6 hours between 13 and 19 July 2022. 

The comfortable temperatures at the start of the month will be most probably followed by another heat wave that will reach the northern parts of France. Even though a few ensemble members show max temperatures above 40ºC, most likely these outliers will be smoothed out in the following days.

In Data4Risk we are closely monitoring the temperature forecasts and will publish heatwave alerts in advance.